Saturday, December 22, 2012
Friday, December 21, 2012
INTRODUCING THE DECENT EMPLOYMENT RATE
The European Centre for Workers'Questions EZA with the financial support of the European Commission
has just published an interesting booklet with the promising title
“Europe 2020 – How to meet the 75% employment rate target in a
decent way?” (Contributions to Social dialogue 14). Not an easy
subject but the three authors Tom Vandenbrande, Michael Schwarz &
Hubert Cosey have succeeded in presenting the results of this
research project from both EZA and the Higher Institute for Labour ofthe Catholic University of Leuven (Belgium) in a clear and
straightforward manner.
The authors analyze the 'Europe 2020'
policy regarding the target 75% of the 20-64 years-old to be employed
in 2020. Today a very topical issue in the EU where unemployment
rates are rising fast because of the economic crisis that followed
after the financial crisis in the Eurozone countries. To find out
what will be the employment rates in the EU in the year 2020 the
researchers used the rather simple forecasting methodology assuming
that the participation patterns of European citizens will show the
same patterns as in the decade before ( the EU Lisbon agreement 2000
– 2010). Based on this methodology it is expected that “the
employment rate will rise very moderately between 2010 and 2020 to
achieve an employment rate close to 70% in 2020.”
The authors expect “that two elements
are in favor of the employment target set by the European Commission
for the next decade.” First of all, our forecast is encouraging for
European policymakers, as the number of countries within target would
increase from 5 to 6 countries and 8 other countries come close to
the target in exercise. The number of countries with an employment
rate of more than 10% below target would be reduced from eleven to
six countries. Secondly, the opportunity given by the European
Commission to translate the 75% target into national targets has been
inspiring and possibly motivating individual Member States to work
out a feasible national strategy with regard to employment rate
progress.” (page 16 – 18)
The most important issue however is how
to reach this employment rate of 75%? On this point the authors make
some critical observations on the recipes offered by the European
Commission. The European policy makers suggest 3 paths in the quest
for more employment:
1. Reducing the cost of labour by
reducing social security contributions, flexibility in entry wage
setting, a wider use of in-work benefits..
2.Attract inactive people to the labour
market: enhance greater internal flexibility, flex-time, extend
day-care facilities, link unemployment benefits to training/job
search etc...
3. Education and training:
responsiveness of training to the labour market, support targeted
training...
Regarding the number one proposal, that
is to reduce labour costs, the authors come to a remarkable
conclusion after analyzing EU labour statistics: “there
is no strong relation between reducing the labour cost and a positive
evolution of the employment rate in European Member States.” (page
21) This means that the idea of the European policymakers that work
will become attractive for employers by reducing labour costs does
not work so well. Therefore the authors propose an alternative way
which is to make work more attractive for workers by ensuring decent
jobs. “As workers have the prospect of a high-quality job, the
reward of working time is bigger than the reward of free time, and
more people will be motivated to invest their time in a job. So,
raising the job quality will be positively linked to more workers and
a higher employment rate.” (page 23)
This positive relationship between job
quality and employment rate should be supported firstly by raising
the human capital of workers. “Investment in training and learning
opportunities increases individual productivity, but also the
productivity of co-workers through spill-over effects. Secondly,
workers' security induces economic growth. Elements such as job
protection, safe working conditions, fair wages, and access to social
protection may also increase productivity and participation, and
therefore favor growth and labour supply. In addition, many security
mechanisms work as automatic stabilizers, which are particularly
helpful during economic downturns. “ (page 23-24)
Following these conclusions the authors
look for ways how to make work attractive as an alternative way for
creating more employment. The result is a list of elements that
define work quality: work autonomy, work intensity, physical risk
exposure, psychological risk exposure, level of team autonomy,
meaningfulness of work, wages and social benefits, suitable working
times, job security, skills development, career opportunities, voice.
Because of the foregoing it is not a
surprise that the authors propose the development of a 'decent
employment rate' that in the future will accompany the employment
rate that is “calculated by dividing the number of people working
in decent employment by the total population.” (page 49)
They call the unions “to promote
actively the economic and social advantages for employers and
employees that emerge through the introduction of good work quality
policies... Workers' organizations should also insist that good
practice examples from European countries are, where applicable,
considered, promoted and possibly adopted by other Member States.”
(page 50)
Friday, December 14, 2012
EUROPEAN BANKING UNION
In the night of 21 on
13 December, after fourteen hours of meeting of the European Council
of the Ministers of Finance of the 27 European Union members, a
compromise was reached on a European banking supervisor. Such a
supervisor is needed because since 2008 many banks have been rescued
by their governments. One of the main lessons of the credit crisis is
that dozens of banks are to big to fail. The financial obligations of
these banks are so significant that a bankruptcy threatens the entire
financial system. If such a 'banking system' threatens to capsize,
the government always must help. In recent years a number of
governments (Spain and Ireland) have pumped so much money in their
banks that they themselves have entered in payment problems. The
European debt crisis was born.That is why the European governments
now want to create a system for an orderly and timely remediation of
unhealthy banks. This should prevent governments te be faced again
with emergency situations in which they have no other choice than to
put money into a bank. As a first step in June the European
Government leaders decided that the European Central Bank (ECB) will
be the European banking supervisor.
The principle agreement
is that in the European Banking Union, the 200 European Banks with
more than € 30 billion on their balance sheets (the so called
'systemic banks' that are to big to fail) and the banks receiving
financial support from the state will be supervised by the European
Central Bank ECB (Frankfurt, Germany). De non-euro countries Great
Britain with London as a financial world centre, Sweden and the
Czech Republic decided not to participate. All other non-euro
countries are expected to participate in the EBC supervising system.
All the involved banks together will guarantee each others savings
and there will be a common procedure in case a bank is going to fall.
The ultimate goal is that the taxpayers don't pay anymore for the
rescue of a bank.
The € 30 billion
limit is the result of a compromise between Germany and France. The
latter wanted together with the European Parliament and the European
Commission that all 6000 European banks would be controlled by the
ECB. However, Germany did not want to put at risk the financial
reserves of the about 1600 local and regional Landes- and
Volksbanken. These smaller banks with their many financial reserves
are influenced by local and regional authorities. It would be
difficult for Federal Chancellor Agela Merkel to confront on gthis
matter these local and regional politicians before elections in
september 2013.
The main supervisor is
thus the European Central Bank. This requires, however, the
Convention for the ECB to be adjusted to make sure separation between
the 'prudential supervision' on the health of the banks, and the
"monetary control 'on the financial stability of the eurozone
economy. The ECB in Frankfurt should hire a lot of new employees in
order to perform the monitoring.
Another important
measure is that at the moment the ECB indicates that the supervising
system is working the so called European emergency fund EMS (European
Stability Mechanism) can be authorised to give loans to banks without
influencing the public debt of the country.
German Chancellor
Angela Merkel called the agreement invaluable. "We will have a
clear separation between the responsibilities for monetary policy and
banking supervision." However, some critics are concerned that
the political independence of the monitoring of the banks is not
sufficiently guaranteed. They point to the need for proper procedures
for this to ensure. The Cypriot Minister of Finance Vassos Shiarly
Shiarly spoke of the agreement as a Christmas present for all of
Europe. "According to him, the overall objective of the Bank
agrees to restore confidence in the sector, he added.
Monday, December 3, 2012
FIRE IN BANGLADESH
For my international trade union work I have visited Bangladesh, which once included also a visit to various jute factories. These were state-owned enterprises in decline because demand for jute was becoming lower and lower as a result of the growing use of for example plastic shopping bags.De working conditions were terrible, especially compared to those common in Europe. The local unions did their best but even in these state enterprises they could not change much. Women and children sat working on the oil contaminated floor. There were no decent bathrooms so workers -women and men alike – pooped and peed in the gutters along the outdoor walls of the factories. No pleasant sight.
These days once again there was a huge fire in a textile factory in which 122 people were killed. That were so many deaths that the disaster reached the international press and TV news worldwide. A trade union colleague in Bangladesh has send me some newspaper clippings with photographs. As you can read on the frontpage of the Daily Star since 1990 there have been no less than 33 major fires with a total of 500 deaths. You can read also that the day after the big fire in the Ashulia textile factory there was another fire in another factory, but fortunately without casualties. (See the clipping at the end of the article).
Saturday, December 1, 2012
BEING EMPLOYED OR UNEMPLOYED THAT IS THE QUESTION
Today in
Europe unemployment is becoming a very serious problem not only in
debt ridden countries as Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland but also
in the other EU countries. Unemployment is a consequence of non- or
negative economic growth and that is what happens today in most of
the EU countries. Even Germany, having the strongest economy in the
EU, is running the risk to enter in the dangerous area of non –
economic growth. The question now is how to restore economic growth
in the Eurozone?
What is
most needed for economic growth is money or to say it more
professional capital. Capital to invest in an economic activity that
will generate jobs like a textile mill or a TV set factory. But what
to do when there is no capital available to invest in one or another
economic activity because money is needed for the payment of debts of
many Eurozone countries? Besides, because of these debts many private
investors dare not to invest in those countries. How to escape from
this vicious circle of debts and frightened investors?
After a
lot of European political quarreling special emergency funds were
created to help over indebted countries like Greece, Ireland and
Portugal with extra money because the markets are closed to them
because of to high interests. Private investors don't want to take
the risk to loose their money in a country that is over indebted. But
this emergency money only serves to keep the government going on, it
is not creating jobs and production. It is dead money.
Another
way out could be the devaluation of the Euro to make products on the
international market cheaper which will probably give a boost to the
sales of these products and so production together with jobs will go
up. But in the case of the Eurozone most exports go between the Euro
countries themselves so benefits from devaluation will be low. The
countries that export more to the global market like Germany are at
the same time the strongest economies. They don't need a lower priced
Euro. May be France and Italy will benefit somewhat from a lower
priced Euro but the question is how much, especially when they don' t
reform the labor market like Germany.
Another
possibility is that the European Central bank starts to print money.
In fact this is to a certain extent already happening by buying bonds
from indebted countries through the European Central Bank. But this
measure is meant to maintain international confidence in the Euro not
to restart the economy. For that purpose much more money should be
printed with the great risk of a sky-high inflation in the near
future. Some economists belief this is the only option left for the
Eurozone but because of its pre Second World War experiences Germany
is absolutely against it. On the other side inflation is in fact a by
the state organized way of social theft hurting most the weakest
people in society like the unemployed and the retired people. They
are the real victims of money with lower purchasing power.
The
European Trade Union Confederation beliefs that the best way for the
Eurozone to get economies growing again with the aim to create
employment is major steps towards a more united Europe. They propose
the creation of Eurobonds guaranteed by the European Central Bank.
These bonds will provide fresh money to invest in the so-called green
economy (electric cars, windmills, solar energy etc.) with the aim to
create new jobs. However, there are some questions to answer. Are
those Eurobonds trustworthy while they are also guaranteed by some
countries with still a lot of debts? Are governments capable to
invest money efficient and productive in these areas or will a lot of
money be lost in inefficient bureaucratic control systems or even
worse go to projects which at the end have no real economic future?
In that case the Eurozone has only created a new debt burden.
Another
policy proposed by the European Commission and supported by for
example Germany are social and economic reforms on the labor market
and the social security system. This kind of reforms does not
activate economies and create jobs immediately. The big issue however
is that these reforms are affecting long ago acquired social rights
and that is what trade unions don't like. They insist that these
reforms (working longer, more flexibility on the labor market, lower
and shorter unemployment payment etc.) do not work and on the
contrary will create new poverty. It will also affect the internal
consumer market which means another setback for the economy. On the
other side without these reforms together with education, technical
innovation etc. Europe will lose competitiveness on the global market
and without a global market Europe will loose part of its wealth.
While the
trade unions look for solutions without losing the acquired social
rights and stimulating the economic growth with public money to
create new jobs, the European Commission and the Nordic European
countries are looking for strong reforms on the labor market combined
with lowering the debt burden by increasing the retirement age,
making the labor market more flexible which means lower salaries and
lowering unemployment benefits in time and amount. The next months
will make clear who will win the game or will there be no winners at
all?
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